Industry news

In April, after falling for two consecutive months, the oil and chemical industry sentiment index rebounded to 98.98, up 5.34 percentage points from the previous month, returning from the cold range to the normal range. In April, with the introduction of old and new policies for automobiles and home appliances in many places, terminal demand continued to improve, the inventory turnover of enterprises accelerated, and the production willingness of enterprises was also increased, which led to the improvement of the oil and chemical industry sentiment index. From the sub-index point of view, the boom index of rubber, plastic and other polymer products manufacturing and chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, which is close to the consumer terminal, has rebounded significantly, rising by 7.21 percentage points and 7.47 percentage points, respectively, indicating that the current momentum of the industry recovery is strengthening.

On April 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to emphasize the overall study of the policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing, reflecting that the current real estate market in China is facing greater pressure to reduce the stock of housing, and the previous two stock housing optimization have driven the rapid development of China's real estate market. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous increase of relevant policies, it will stimulate the optimization and transformation of the real estate industry and gradually develop in the direction of a positive cycle.

Since the beginning of this year, the US consumer price index (CPI) has risen continuously, indicating that the United States is still facing greater inflationary pressure. In addition, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States has declined more than expected, and the impetus for future interest rate cuts in the United States is likely to gradually shift from controlling inflation to curbing economic downside risks, but the policy shift takes time. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut have been pushed back to the second half of the year, so the dollar's strength will continue to weigh on commodity prices in the short term.

In April, the oil and chemical industry sentiment index rebounded, rising to 98.98, a new high since 2024, up 5.34 percentage points from March, from the cold range back to the normal range. In April, the demand side continued to improve, and the inventory turnover rate of enterprises accelerated, which led to the rebound of the four sub-indexes. Specifically, in April, the demand for the terminal manufacturing industry improved, especially the demand for automobiles, home appliances and other industries continued to grow, which led to the increase in demand for rubber and plastic products, the destocking speed of rubber and plastic products continued to accelerate, the inventory turnover speed of enterprises gradually accelerated, and the production willingness increased. Drive rubber, plastic and other polymer products manufacturing industry climate index rose 7.21 percentage points. Its upstream chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry in the downstream demand to the good drive, the speed of destocking accelerated, the boom index rose 7.47 percentage points from the previous quarter, from the undercooling zone into the cold zone. The continued recovery of demand for transportation also continues to improve, and the fuel processing industry climate index rose 3.23 percentage points from the previous month. The improvement of downstream production promoted the growth of demand for crude oil, led to the acceleration of crude oil inventory turnover, while the continued high oil prices also improved corporate profits, and jointly promoted the oil and gas mining industry climate index rose 2.93 percentage points.

Overall, driven by the weakening of enterprise inventory pressure and the accelerating inventory turnover speed, the oil and chemical industry sentiment index returned to the normal range from the cold zone.

China's economic recovery gained momentum in April. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.4 percent in April, down from March but still in expansion territory, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. In March, social finance grew 8.7% year on year, slowing down. M2 increased by 8.3%, M1 increased by 1.1%, although M1 and M2 year-on-year growth rate fell, but the scissors between the two narrowed, monetary liquidity improved. At the same time, China's real estate industry is about to enter a new round of decentralization cycle, and confidence in the real estate market has increased. Our economic recovery is picking up speed.

On the international front, the minutes of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting in April showed that compared with March, although the vast majority of members maintained interest rates unchanged, some members believed that the conditions for interest rate cuts had been met, and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the eurozone in June had been further strengthened. In contrast, the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in April was 49.9, back below the line of growth and contraction, and the US CPI has rebounded for three consecutive months this year, the progress of inflation is slow, the pressure is still there, the interest rate cut is expected to be delayed again to the second half of 2024, the disturbance of the US economic turmoil on the global economy still exists, and the price suppression of crude oil and other commodities still exists.